Age at diagnosis of prediabetes offers key indicator of risk for type 2 diabetes and cancer

Researchers followed up health of study participants following prediabetes diagnosis.

The risk of developing cancer following a prediabetes diagnosis is greater in those aged between 55 and 75 years than any other age group, according to a new study.

A study by researchers at the University of Leicester also found that the risk of developing type 2 diabetes was lower in people aged 75 years or older.

Previous research suggested that elevated blood glucose levels were associated with an increased risk of developing cancer.  

For this latest study, the team of researchers examined the health records of 328,049 adults in England who were diagnosed with prediabetes between January 1998 and November 2018.

In the report, recently published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, researchers said: “Higher than normal glucose concentrations have been linked to an increased risk of cancer. We aimed to describe the disease trajectories from prediabetes to cancer, accounting for the possible conversion to type 2 diabetes and risk of death.”

Each study participant was tracked from the time of their prediabetes diagnosis until they developed type 2 diabetes, cancer or died.

Over a 10-year period, 12% of men diagnosed with prediabetes at age 75 or older went on to develop type 2 diabetes or cancer, the study reported.

Of men diagnosed with prediabetes before the age of 55, it was reported that 24% went on to develop one of these conditions.

Study findings suggested that the likelihood of death following a prediabetes diagnosis varied significantly by age, ranging from 1.2% among women diagnosed before age 55 to 38.7% among women diagnosed after age 75.

Among men diagnosed with prediabetes, the likelihood of developing cancer ranged from 1.9% for those under 55 to 7.8% for those diagnosed between 65 and 75 years.

According to the research, developing type 2 diabetes had only a modest impact on an individual’s risk of cancer compared to prediabetes.

Dr Francesco Zaccardi, Honorary Consultant in Cardiometabolic Medicine and Associate Professor in Clinical Epidemiology and Health Data Science at the University of Leicester and lead author of the study, said: “Our findings highlight the importance of age when looking at prediabetic patients and determining the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes or cancer, both more common in individuals with prediabetes.

“Importantly, proactive lifestyle and clinical interventions can help individuals maintain stable glucose level or even revert from prediabetes state to normal glucose levels.”

Professor Kamlesh Khunti, Director of the NIHR ARC East Midlands and the Real-World Evidence Unit, Professor of Primary Care Diabetes and Vascular Medicine at the University of Leicester and senior author of the research paper, said: “Our findings reveal a striking age-related difference in how prediabetes progresses.

“Older adults diagnosed with prediabetes face a higher risk of death or of developing type 2 diabetes or cancer, while younger individuals have a greater chance of remaining in a stable prediabetes state. This highlights the importance of targeted strategies to support people at different stages of life and manage their long-term health risks.”

The research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) East Midlands, NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and Hope Against Cancer.

Read the report in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology

Read more about type 2 diabetes