Published on 19 January 2026

Research in Finland found overweight young people at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Research from Finland has revealed a dramatic increase in the number of young people being recognised as having prediabetes.

Finnish children living with overweight or obesity has reportedly grown significantly in the last 20 years, according to researchers at Tampere University and the University of Eastern Finland.

In the early 2000s, 11% of overweight or obese young people included in the study had prediabetes. Two decades later, the prevalence of prediabetes was 50%.

The prevalence of obesity remained unchanged during the study period, however researchers noted that prediabetes became more common among children, which could, in part, be due to a simultaneous increase in maternal overweight.

The study, recently published in International Journal of Obesity, included 602 children aged six to 16, who had been assessed for overweight or obesity in primary health care or specialised health care in Tampere between 2002 and 2020.

The study also included a control group of 483 children aged seven to 16, drawn from the Physical Activity and Nutrition in Children (PANIC) study, underway at the University of Eastern Finland.

According to the study, 34% of children who had been assessed for overweight or obesity had prediabetes, and 1% had type 2 diabetes.

In the control group, 7% had prediabetes, while type 2 diabetes was not found.

Prediabetes was more common in older children and those in more advanced stages of puberty. Its prevalence was also associated with fatty liver disease and acanthosis nigricans, a skin condition often linked to overweight and disturbances in glucose metabolism.

Researchers highlighted that the prevalence of prediabetes increased substantially during the study period.

However, no significant changes were reported in other factors, such as the prevalence or degree of obesity, body mass index or other metabolic disorders.

This led scientists to believe that the foetal period could play a role, as the only other significant change found during the study period was a marked increase in maternal overweight, rising from 20% to 69%.

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Hanna Riekki, MD, a researcher from Tampere University, said: “The rise in the prevalence of prediabetes without changes in children’s weight may partly be explained by factors related to pregnancy and the foetal period. Changes in children’s body composition, physical activity or diet might also play a role. Further research into these factors is needed.”

In a joint statement, Professor Kalle Kurppa and Linnea Aitokari, MD, PhD, from Tampere University, together with Professor Timo Lakka, the Director of the PANIC study at the University of Eastern Finland, considered the findings concerning: “The results show that even if the prevalence or degree of obesity does not change, obesity-related comorbidities may still become more common.”

Prediabetes increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and many other cardiometabolic disorders, such as fatty liver disease and cardiovascular diseases. A metabolic disorder that begins in childhood may progress more rapidly and cause more complications than a disorder beginning in adulthood. It is therefore essential to actively screen for obesity-related comorbidities such as disturbances in glucose metabolism in children with increased adiposity, so that interventions can be implemented early.

The report concluded: “The prevalence of prediabetes appears to be increasing rapidly, independent of changes in the degree of obesity or other metabolic conditions. This alarming trend warrants further confirmation, along with an in-depth investigation into its underlying causes.”

Read the report in International Journal of Obesity

Read more about type 2 diabetes

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